NWS monitoring possible tropical cyclone that could affect San Diego County

The National Weather Service is monitoring Tropical Storm Marie, which developed near Baja California and could bring a chance of showers to San Diego County over Labor Day weekend.



The National Weather Service was monitoring on Tuesday an area of low pressure and thunderstorms several hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico that could affect San Diego.

The National Hurricane Center has designated the weather system Invest 95-E, and the NWS said there is a 90% chance it will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Forecasts for where the system could move over the next several days vary significantly but generally fall along two tracks: a westerly route that would take the storm farther into the Pacific Ocean, or a northern route that could bring the system toward San Diego, Los Angeles and northwestern Mexico.

"At this time, the westward track is the more favored track which would take the storm out to sea, an NWS statement reads. "The northward track is less likely."

The meteorologists did provide a caveat: "Long-range forecasts inherently carry significant uncertainty, particularly with a system that has not yet developed."

Potential impacts, should the system develop into a storm and move toward the region, include a risk of coastal flooding as astronomical high tides are expected during the week of Labor Day.

According to the meteorologists, associated tropical swells are roughly forecast to arrive Saturday or Sunday, coinciding with high tides of 6.2 to 6.5 feet.

"Anticipated wave heights will depend on the track of the storm, so these remain uncertain," the NWS statement read. "It is still way too early to discuss expected rainfall totals, however even with a storm track further out to sea, tropical moisture may still be funneled into the area during Labor Day Weekend."

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